Compare For Yourself.
Ipsos Press Release: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5192
Global Article: http://www.globalnews.ca/Liberals+gaining+Tories+stay/4584984/story.html
A few examples:
1) Ipsos-"The results represent only a marginal change from the poll released by Ipsos Reid at the outset of the campaign."
Global-"The Liberals have gained ground in the election campaign while the Tories have slipped, but the Tories are still on top by a wide margin, according to a new survey
2) Ipsos-"What continues to drive the high-flying Tories in the overall national support are their numbers in Ontario"
Global-"The Tories remain strong nationally because of their numbers in Ontario"
3)Ipsos-"Two in ten (21%) say their impression of Michael Ignatieff has worsened, roughly equalling the proportion of Canadians who say their impressions have improved (20%), representing a net drop of 1 point. A majority’s (54%) impressions remain unchanged, and 5% don’t know."
Global- Ignatieff turns corner with voters-"The news is better for Ignatieff on that front. It seems he might be turning the corner with Canadians, as the proportion of those whose impressions have worsened (21 per cent) roughly equals the proportion of Canadians who say their impression has improved (20 per cent). A majority’s (54 per cent) impressions remain unchanged, and five per cent don’t know"
4) Ipsos-"But the national vote numbers could yield a ‘ballot box bonus’ for the Conservatives and deliver them their coveted majority if vote certainty turnout holds: currently, 56% of Canadians say that they are ‘absolutely certain’ to go out and vote on Election Day and if this represented the actual vote turnout the adjusted polling numbers suggest Conservative support would rise to 44%(+3),
Global-"If all the Canadians now promising to vote (56 per cent) did, in fact, cast their ballots on election day, Tory support would rise to 44 per cent, while support for the Liberals would be 26 per cent, the NDP vote would yield 18 per cent and the Green Party would receive four per cent"
So lets recap.
1) Marginal change means Liberal gain, Conservative drop (I won't even mention the margin of error is 3.1 percentage points).
2. High flying Tories national numbers means numbers seem strong because of Ontario polling. Forget the fact they lead in almost every region except Quebec, where they are in 2nd or 3rd depending on the pollster.
3. Apparently having Canadians impression of Ignatieff drop one percent is turning the corner.
4) No mention of majority, no mention of the 56% absolutely cetain of voting.